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Darcy Parish's fresh 5-game average of 25.8 disposals clears the 24.5 line at Marvel Stadium where the indoor setting removes all weather risk — his 25.9 season average provides additional confirmation that this line sits below his established output level.

WhyParish is Essendon's primary ball-winner averaging 25.9 disposals for the season with a fresh prior5 of 25.8, both above the 24.5 alternate line at $1.87, fitting the alternate disposals Over midfielder lane with strong dual evidence from season and recent form.

RiskEssendon blowout over St Kilda could see Parish managed or rested in the final quarter, compressing his disposal ceiling below what a full-game projection expects.

Zak Butters' season average of 30.3 disposals with a tight 4.1 sigma means he rarely dips below 26, giving genuine floor protection above the 27.5 line — Adelaide Oval's stat-suppressing tendencies are the reason this sits as a Smokie rather than Value.

WhyButters is a premium midfielder whose 31.2 fresh prior5 average and 30.3 season average both provide substantial runway above the 27.5 line at $1.87, with his tight disposal variance suggesting the line is set below his established floor.

RiskAdelaide Oval historically suppresses disposal counts by 5-8%, and if Port Adelaide's game plan shifts to a more direct, shorter-possession style against North Melbourne, Butters' chain-play disposals could compress.